March Madness 2026 — AI-Powered Bracket Tracker

Round of 64 — Biggest Surprises

High Point def. Wisconsin83-82West

Biggest upset — 12-seed HPU hit 15 threes, 13 offensive rebounds

TCU def. Ohio State66-64East

9-seed TCU led 39-24 at half, survived late rally

Kentucky def. Santa Clara89-84 OTMidwest

Kentucky survived OT to deny the 10-seed upset

Saint Louis def. Georgia102-88Midwest

9-seed SLU dominated, led by 17 at halftime

Round of 32 — Upset Picks

⚡ (6) Louisville over (3) Michigan State

BPI has this 51/49 Louisville yet MSU is -4.5. Best upset value of the slate.

⚡ (12) High Point over (4) Arkansas

Arkansas 239th in 2PT defense, missing Knox + Pringle questionable. HPU had 13 offensive boards vs Wisconsin. Slingshot: 30.8% upset chance.

⚡ (11) VCU over (3) Illinois

Illinois 0-6 in games decided by 5 or fewer since November. VCU came back from 19 down vs UNC. Slingshot: 25.8%.

⚡ (11) Texas over (3) Gonzaga

Texas battle-tested with 2 wins already. Vokietaitis had 23pts/16reb. Gonzaga wasn't dominant vs Kennesaw State.

⚡ (10) Texas A&M over (2) Houston

A&M neutralized Saint Mary's defense efficiently. Rashaun Agee (22/9/3). Slingshot: 24% upset chance.

Injury Watch & Cinderella Alert

Caleb Foster (Duke): OUT — foot injury, not expected back. Duke barely survived Siena without him (71-65).

Patrick Ngongba II (Duke): QUESTIONABLE — foot, missed Round of 64. If he misses again, Duke's interior defense drops sharply.

Nick Pringle (Arkansas): QUESTIONABLE/LIKELY OUT — starting center, undisclosed. Calipari uncertain Friday.

Karter Knox (Arkansas): OUT — hasn't played since mid-February.

Caleb Wilson (UNC): ELIMINATED — UNC lost to VCU in OT after trailing by 19.

🏰 Cinderella WatchHigh Point

12-seed Cinderella. Beat Wisconsin 83-82 with 15 threes and 13 offensive boards. Never beaten a top-4 conference team before this tournament. Now face Arkansas who are missing frontcourt pieces and rank 239th in 2PT defense.

Visual Bracket

Full 68-team tracker with Merlin's winners, confidence badges, upset flags, and live scoreboard overlays.

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Round of 64

1Duke71

16Siena65

Merlin pickDuke99%

FinalDuke 71 - 65 Siena

KenPom #1. Foster out does not matter here.

8Ohio State64

9TCU66

Merlin pickOhio State58%

FinalOhio State 64 - 66 TCU

OSU momentum + better underlying profile.

5St. John's79

12Northern Iowa53

Merlin pickSt. John's82%

FinalSt. John's 79 - 53 Northern Iowa

UNI is one of the weakest 12s by KenPom.

4Kansas68

13Cal Baptist60

Merlin pickKansas85%

FinalKansas 68 - 60 Cal Baptist

Kansas is cold, but still too talented.

6Louisville83

11South Florida79

Merlin pick⚡ South Florida55%

FinalLouisville 83 - 79 South Florida

USF won 11 straight and Louisville is short-handed.

3Michigan State92

14North Dakota State67

Merlin pickMichigan State93%

FinalMichigan State 92 - 67 North Dakota State

Izzo in March + top-10 KenPom.

7UCLA75

10UCF71

Merlin pickUCLA68%

FinalUCLA 75 - 71 UCF

UCF is overseeded; UCLA has the sturdier profile.

2UConn82

15Furman71

Merlin pickUConn95%

FinalUConn 82 - 71 Furman

Too much tournament equity and talent.

Round of 32

9TCU

1Duke

Merlin pickDuke88%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

5St. John's

4Kansas

Merlin pickSt. John's60%

LiveSt. John's 11 - 6 Kansas

SJU's defense is a bad matchup for cold Kansas.

6Louisville

3Michigan State

Merlin pickMichigan State78%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

7UCLA

2UConn

Merlin pickUConn72%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Sweet 16

1Duke

5St. John's

Merlin pickDuke75%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

3Michigan State

2UConn

Merlin pickUConn60%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Elite Eight

1Duke

2UConn

Merlin pickDuke62%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

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Round of 64

1Arizona92

16LIU58

Merlin pickArizona99%

FinalArizona 92 - 58 LIU

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

8Villanova76

9Utah State86

Merlin pickUtah State55%

FinalVillanova 76 - 86 Utah State

USU is actually the betting favorite.

5Wisconsin82

12High Point83

Merlin pickWisconsin75%

FinalWisconsin 82 - 83 High Point

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

4Arkansas

13Hawaii

Merlin pickArkansas90%

FinalArkansas won

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

6BYU

11Texas

Merlin pick⚡ Texas55%

FinalTexas won

BYU without Saunders is too one-dimensional.

3Gonzaga

14Kennesaw State

Merlin pickGonzaga94%

FinalGonzaga won

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

7Miami (FL)80

10Missouri66

Merlin pickMiami (FL)58%

FinalMiami (FL) 80 - 66 Missouri

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

2Purdue104

15Queens71

Merlin pickPurdue97%

FinalPurdue 104 - 71 Queens

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Round of 32

1Arizona

9Utah State

Merlin pickArizona92%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

12High Point

4Arkansas

Merlin pickArkansas62%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

11Texas

3Gonzaga

Merlin pickGonzaga80%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

7Miami (FL)69

2Purdue79

Merlin pickPurdue75%

FinalMiami (FL) 69 - 79 Purdue

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Sweet 16

1Arizona

4Arkansas

Merlin pickArizona78%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

3Gonzaga

2Purdue

Merlin pickPurdue58%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Elite Eight

1Arizona

2Purdue

Merlin pickArizona70%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

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Round of 64

1Florida114

16Prairie View A&M55

Merlin pickFlorida99%

FinalFlorida 114 - 55 Prairie View A&M

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

8Clemson61

9Iowa67

Merlin pickIowa58%

FinalClemson 61 - 67 Iowa

Iowa is underseeded and Clemson is down a big.

5Vanderbilt78

12McNeese68

Merlin pickVanderbilt78%

FinalVanderbilt 78 - 68 McNeese

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

4Nebraska76

13Troy47

Merlin pickNebraska91%

FinalNebraska 76 - 47 Troy

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

6North Carolina

11VCU

Merlin pick⚡ VCU55%

FinalVCU won

UNC missing Caleb Wilson changes everything.

3Illinois

14Penn

Merlin pickIllinois96%

FinalIllinois won

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

7Saint Mary's

10Texas A&M

Merlin pick⚡ Texas A&M52%

FinalTexas A&M won

Merlin is leaning SEC experience in a near coin flip.

2Houston

15Idaho

Merlin pickHouston98%

FinalHouston won

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Round of 32

1Florida

9Iowa

Merlin pickFlorida82%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

5Vanderbilt

4Nebraska

Merlin pickVanderbilt62%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

11VCU

3Illinois

Merlin pickIllinois82%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

10Texas A&M

2Houston

Merlin pickHouston88%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Sweet 16

1Florida

5Vanderbilt

Merlin pickFlorida65%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

3Illinois

2Houston

Merlin pickHouston58%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Elite Eight

1Florida

2Houston

Merlin pickHouston55%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

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Round of 64

1Michigan

16Howard

Merlin pickMichigan99%

FinalMichigan won

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

8Georgia

9Saint Louis

Merlin pickGeorgia52%

FinalSaint Louis won

Basically dead even; SEC pedigree breaks the tie.

5Texas Tech91

12Akron71

Merlin pickTexas Tech75%

FinalTexas Tech 91 - 71 Akron

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

4Alabama90

13Hofstra70

Merlin pickAlabama85%

FinalAlabama 90 - 70 Hofstra

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

6Tennessee78

11Miami (OH)56

Merlin pickTennessee85%

FinalTennessee 78 - 56 Miami (OH)

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

3Virginia82

14Wright State73

Merlin pickVirginia92%

FinalVirginia 82 - 73 Wright State

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

7Kentucky89

10Santa Clara84

Merlin pick⚡ Santa Clara52%

Final OTKentucky 89 - 84 Santa Clara (OT)

Kentucky is limping in and Santa Clara is live.

2Iowa State108

15Tennessee State74

Merlin pickIowa State98%

FinalIowa State 108 - 74 Tennessee State

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Round of 32

9Saint Louis

1Michigan

Merlin pickMichigan90%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

5Texas Tech

4Alabama

Merlin pickAlabama60%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

6Tennessee

3Virginia

Merlin pickVirginia62%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

7Kentucky63

2Iowa State82

Merlin pickIowa State88%

FinalKentucky 63 - 82 Iowa State

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Sweet 16

1Michigan

4Alabama

Merlin pickMichigan72%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

3Virginia

2Iowa State

Merlin pickIowa State60%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Elite Eight

1Michigan

2Iowa State

Merlin pickMichigan58%

Advancing on overall efficiency, matchup shape, and bracket path strength.

Final Four

Duke vs HoustonDuke60%

Arizona vs MichiganArizona62%

Championship

Duke vs Arizona

Arizona

58% confidence

Tournament Games

Live scores every 30 seconds, with both March 19 and March 20 first-round matchups covered.

ROUND OF 64 / LIVE + UPCOMING

FinalCBS

(7) Miami (FL) vs (2) Purdue

Merlin: Purdue75%

FinalWestScheduled

Miami (FL) 69 - 79 Purdue

Spread / model note

Injury note

Why Merlin likes it

Purdue's size and half-court offense carried through.

FinalCBS

(7) Kentucky vs (2) Iowa State

Merlin: Iowa State88%

FinalMidwestScheduled

Kentucky 63 - 82 Iowa State

Spread / model note

Injury note

Why Merlin likes it

Iowa State defended at an elite level and controlled the game.

LIVECBS

(5) St. John's vs (4) Kansas

Merlin: St. John's60%

LIVEEastScheduled

St. John's 11 - 6 Kansas

Spread / model note

Injury note

Why Merlin likes it

St. John's defense is a bad matchup for cold Kansas.

6:10 PM ETTNT

(6) Tennessee vs (3) Virginia

Merlin: Virginia62%

6:10 PM ETMidwestScheduled

Score pending

Spread / model note

Injury note

Why Merlin likes it

Virginia’s half-court control gives Merlin the edge.

7:10 PM ETTBS

(9) Iowa vs (1) Florida

Merlin: Florida82%

7:10 PM ETSouthScheduled

Score pending

Spread / model note

Injury note

Why Merlin likes it

Florida’s depth and offense should overwhelm Iowa.

7:50 PM ETtruTV

(9) Utah State vs (1) Arizona

Merlin: Arizona92%

7:50 PM ETWestScheduled

Score pending

Spread / model note

Injury note

Why Merlin likes it

Arizona has been the cleanest 1-seed in the West.

8:45 PM ETTNT

(7) UCLA vs (2) UConn

Merlin: UConn72%

8:45 PM ETEastScheduled

Score pending

Spread / model note

Injury note

Why Merlin likes it

UConn’s power and tournament pedigree remain the lean.

9:45 PM ETTBS

(5) Texas Tech vs (4) Alabama

Merlin: Alabama60%

9:45 PM ETMidwestScheduled

Score pending

Spread / model note

Injury note

Why Merlin likes it

Alabama gets the nod in the pace-and-shotmaking battle.

Merlin's live bracket.Built by AI agents in real-time.

Duke

Round of 64

Round of 32

Sweet 16

Elite Eight

Arizona

Round of 64

Round of 32

Sweet 16

Elite Eight

Houston

Round of 64

Round of 32

Sweet 16

Elite Eight

Michigan

Round of 64

Round of 32

Sweet 16

Elite Eight

(7) Miami (FL) vs (2) Purdue

(7) Kentucky vs (2) Iowa State

(5) St. John's vs (4) Kansas

(6) Tennessee vs (3) Virginia

(9) Iowa vs (1) Florida

(9) Utah State vs (1) Arizona

(7) UCLA vs (2) UConn

(5) Texas Tech vs (4) Alabama

Merlin's live bracket.
Built by AI agents in real-time.